TMC Stock: Price and News – Reddit's Take
After a year of rollercoaster action, The Metals Company (TMC) is attempting another comeback. The question, as always, is whether this rally has legs or if it's just another flash in the pan fueled by hype and short-covering. Let's dig into the numbers.
A Wild Ride, Quantified
TMC has delivered one of the most volatile market stories of the year. The stock surged over $11 in October, driven by geopolitical tensions and enthusiasm for critical minerals. Then, just as quickly, it cratered, falling below $5 by mid-November. That's a full round trip fueled by speculation. Now, it's hovering around $7.90 after Deutsche Bank's raised gold price forecast (more on that later).
The recent surge is attributed, in part, to CFO Craig Shesky's aggressive comments aimed at short sellers, warning them they could face "a very bad day" if regulatory approval comes through. The Metals Company (TMC) Stock Surges 24% After-Hours on CFO Comments Shesky noted that roughly 25 million shares are currently held short. It's a bold move, essentially daring the shorts to stay in the game. But is that confidence justified, or is it just bravado?
One crucial factor is the company's cash position. TMC ended the last quarter with about $115 million in cash, which they claim gives them a couple of years of runway at their current burn rate. Water Tower Research analyst Dmitry Silversteyn seems to agree, noting that the company might not need additional funding anytime soon. TMC also has the potential to raise more than $430 million from existing warrants if needed.
However, let's not forget the third-quarter earnings: a net loss of $184.5 million, compared to $20.5 million in the same quarter last year. That's a massive jump in losses (an increase of almost 800%). While they might have a couple of years of cash on hand, that burn rate is a serious concern.
The Gold Connection: A Tangential Boost?
Deutsche Bank's upgraded gold price forecast to US$4,450/oz in 2026 (up from their earlier estimate of US$4,000/oz) is being cited as a catalyst for TMC's recent rally. The bank projects the trading range to expand to US$3,950–4,950/oz. The reasoning is that structural demand is increasing, pushing the metal above past trends.
But here's where things get interesting. TMC isn't a gold mining company. It's focused on deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules containing nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese – metals crucial for electric vehicles and data centers. The connection to gold seems tenuous at best (a rising tide lifts all boats, perhaps?). I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this type of indirect correlation is unusual. It raises questions about the true drivers of this rally.
Trump's executive order in April to accelerate deep-sea mining operations also provides a tailwind. The order aims to counter China’s control over critical mineral supply chains by fast-tracking extraction of resources from the ocean floor. TMC is in talks with multiple U.S. government agencies, including the Department of Energy and the Pentagon. Shesky claims these conversations are moving in the right direction.
However, it's important to remember that commercialization is still a distant goal. TMC continues to operate at a loss, and the capital required to scale deep-sea mining remains substantial. Even with regulatory progress, technology costs, environmental requirements, and operational complexity continue to weigh heavily on the company’s outlook.
Environmental Concerns: The Unquantifiable Risk
Beyond the financials, there's the ever-present environmental risk. Scientists and environmental groups warn that mining the seabed could cause irreversible ecological damage, potentially triggering stricter regulation or future bans. This risk hangs over TMC like a sword of Damocles, limiting long-term investor confidence. (It's hard to put a precise dollar figure on ecological damage, but it's clearly a negative.)
TMC published two technical assessments in August 2025, assigning a combined net value of $23.6 billion to the metals in its exploratory area. With a current market cap around $2 billion, the company trades well below the estimated value of its underwater resources. This discrepancy (the difference between stated asset value and market cap) is either a massive opportunity or a sign that the market simply doesn't believe those valuations.
Shesky suggested production could start even before the company’s stated timeline of Q4 2027 if all regulatory approvals come through smoothly. The company currently operates under an exploratory license but needs full mining approval to begin commercial operations. The timeline is optimistic, but heavily reliant on regulatory approvals, a factor outside of TMC's direct control.
A High-Stakes Gamble, Not a Sure Thing
TMC's current rally is a complex mix of short-covering, tangential market trends (gold), and potential regulatory tailwinds. The company's aggressive stance against short sellers is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. While the potential upside is significant, the financial losses, environmental concerns, and regulatory hurdles remain substantial risks. The recent surge may be tempting, but my analysis suggests caution is warranted.